DISSERTATION
International Conflict and Leadership Tenure: Domestic Expectations and the Uses and Consequences of Force
My dissertation seeks to explain how the outcomes of
international conflicts affect leadership tenure by accounting for
popular ex-ante expectations. I develop a theoretical model suggesting
that individuals within a population decide whether to reward or punish
leaders after international conflicts based on how the actual outcome
compares to ex-ante expectations about how the conflict most likely
should have turned out. I use the cognitive psychology literature to
develop an explanation for why populations form the ex-ante
expectations they do (often in the face of overwhelming evidence that
their expectations are overly optimistic), and then explain the
consequences these expectations have for leaders who wish to maintain
their jobs. I employ large–n statistical techniques including
survival analysis to test actual effects on leadership tenure, and
public opinion analysis to test the micro–foundations of my
arguments. I find that unexpected outcomes (especially unexpectedly
poor outcomes) are more likely to affect leadership tenure than
outcomes which were considered to be likely regardless of leadership
competence.
PUBLICATIONS
MANUSCRIPTS
"Great Expectations: Domestic Expectations, Conflict Outcomes, and the Duration of Leadership Tenure"
"Who's Your Daddy? Regime Type, Legitimacy, and the Duration of Leadership Tenure"
CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS
"Taxation Levels and the Onset of Civil War," to be presented at the Annual American Political Science Association Meeting, Boston, MA, 2008
"It Takes Two: Strategic Selection and the Effects of International Conflict on Leadership Tenure," paper presented at the Annual American Political Science Association Meeting, Philadelphia, PA 2006.
"Resolve, Capabilities, and War," (with Jonathan Berohn) presented at the Annual Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, IL, 2006.
"Financial Crises, Monetary Institutions, and the Duration of Political Leadership," (with David Leblang) presented at the Annual Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, IL, 2005.
"Slaying the Hydra: Government Response and the Durability of Terrorist Organizations," (with Jonathan Berohn and Erin Mewhinney) presented at the Annual Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, IL, 2005.
"When Do We Know about Civil War? Heteroscedasticity and Probits of Civil War Onset," presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association Meeting, Oakland, CA, 2005.
