PSCI 5108





Syllabus for PSCI 5108:

A Weekly Course Outline.

Week 1. The basic problem: Robinson's "ecological fallacy"

W. Robinson (1950) "Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals." ASR 15: 351-357.

King (1997), Chapters 1-2

Achen and Shively (199), Chapter 1

Week 2. The simple Goodman regression model

L. Goodman (1953) "Ecological Regression and the Behavior of Individuals." ASR 18: 663-664.

L. Goodman (1959) "Some Alternatives to Ecological Correlation." AJS 64: 610-625.

Achen and Shively (1995), Chapter 2

Week 3. Variations in the Goodman model

Achen and Shively (1995), Chapter 5-6

King (1997), Chapter 3

Week 4. Failures: Bias in the Goodman approach

Achen and Shively (1995), Chapter 3

King (1997), Chapter 4

Week 5. Specification

Achen and Shively (1995), Chapter 4

Week 6. Relaxing Goodman's assumptions

Achen and Shively (1995) Chapters 5-6

Week 7. King's proposal

King (1997), Chapters 5-6

Achen and Shively (1995) Chapters 8

Week 8. King - Estimation

King (1997), Chapters 7-8

Week 9. King - Interpretation and Applications I

King (1997), Chapters 10-13

F. Wang (1997) "An Alternative Conjecture-Guide to King's A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem, The Political Methodologist. 8 (#1): 21-26.

Week 10. King - Interpretation and Applications II

C. Kohfield et al. (1997) "Point Estimates Using King's EI in Four Disparate Applications." presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, August 1997.

B. Burden and D. Kimball (1997) "Breaking Up Isn't So Hard to Do: Ecological Inference and Split-Ticket Voting in the 1988 Presidential Election" Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meetings, Chicago, IL, April.

Week 11. Introduction to EzI (2x2 Tables)

King (1997)

Week 12. EzI diagnostics

King (1997)

Week 13. EzI Expanded ("large" tables)

King (1997), Chapter 15

Week 14. Preparation of EI Analysis I

King (1997), Chapter 16

Week 15. Preparation of EI Analysis II

Week 16. Tam (and Rivers) as critic

D. Rivers and W. Tam (1997) "Yet Another Solution to Ecological Regression Problem." presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the Political Methodology Organized Section, Columbus, Ohio, July 1997

W. Tam (1997) "IFF the Assumptions Fit..." University of Illinois, Urbana-Campaign, 1997.

W. Tam (1997) "Structural Shifts and Deterministic Regime Switching in Aggregate Data Analysis." University of Illinois, Urbana-Campaign, 1997.

Extensions and Political Science Applications

O. D. Duncan and B. Davis (1953) "An Alternative to Ecological Correlation." ASR 18: 665-666.

W. P. Shively (1969) "Ecological Inference: The Use of Aggregate Data to Study Individuals." APSR 63: 1183-1196.

W. P. Shively (1969) "Utilizing External Evidence in Cross-level Inference." PM 1: 61-73.

H. Alker (1969) "A Typology of Ecological Fallacies." in M. Dogan and S. Rokkan (ed.). Quantitative Ecological Analysis in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: MIT Press.

J. M. Kousser (1973) "Ecological Regression and the Analysis of Past Politics." JIH 4: 237-262.

E. Hanushek, J. Jackson and J. Kain (1974) "Model Specification, Use of Aggregate Data, and the Ecological Correlation Fallacy." PM 1: 87-106.

L. Irwin and A. Lichtman (1976) "Across the Great Divide: Inferring Individual Behavior From Aggregate Data." PM 3: 411-439.

J. Sprague (1982) "Is There a Micro-Theory Consistent with Contextual Analysis?" in E. Ostrom (ed.) Strategies of Political Inquiry. Beverly Hills: Sage, 91-121.

G. Kramer (1983) "The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate versus Individual-Level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting." APSR 77: 92-111.

W. Flanigan and N. Zingale (1985) "Alchemist's Gold: Inferring Individual Relationships from Aggregate Data." SSH 9: 71-92.

R. Dykstra (1986) "Ecological Regression Estimates: Alchemist's Gold?" SSH 10: 85-90.

L. Erbring (1989) "Individuals Writ Large: An Epilogue on the 'Ecological Fallacy'." PA 1: 235-269.

Journal Abbreviations:


American Political Science Review


American Journal of Sociology


American Sociological Review


Journal of Interdisciplinary History


Political Analysis


Political Methodology


Social Science History